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| | In connection with the sharp drop of US Dollar with respect to other currencies in International currency market “Forex” on last Friday, recently exchange rate of Yuan to US Dollar rose and for the first time, it crossed the mark 7.85 and maintained at mark 7.8402 Yuans per 1 US Dollar. Other record was maximum increase for a single day, which constituted 124 points.
Average exchange rate of Dollar to Yuan for a single trading day crossed the record limit, not only reaching the 7.85 mark for the first time but also approximating to mark 7.84. In a single day, Yuan rose by 124 points and this exceeded the previous best figure 1234 points on 16th August this year. Thus, according to average price, altogether increase of the Yuan with respect to dollar already attained 3.44%. As a result of trading, purchase and selling rates of Yuan were 7.8436 and 7.8428 respectively.
Influence of Dollar:
After such a sharp drop in exchange rate of dollar, several market makers of the opinion that “Exchange rate of Yuan unambiguously again rises”.
By tracking the exchange rate dynamics of Yuan of late, it is easy to notice that, the fluctuation in the exchange rate of Dollar at Forex has practically become main factor determining the exchange rate oа Yuan. Starting from October, Yuan responds immediately by rising for every drop in rate of dollar and once the exchange rate of dollar rises, on the contrary the Yuan falls. In November, correlation in exchange rates of Dollar and Yuan was even more evident that almost every time, when dollar index dipped, exchange rate of Yuan increases.
When everything is more evident, that external factor prevails in the determination of Yuan exchange rate, influence of Chinese market on the rate dynamics of Yuan weakens. According to analysts, rise of Yuan with respect to dollar constitutes altogether 3%, which attained predictable level, in this connection the market makers of Chinese market are not striving to lift the Yuan exchange rate. At the same time, numerous predictions, Yuan shall, as usual, maintain the dynamics of stable growth in future. If Yuan increases significantly in the last month of the year, then it decreases the growth potential in next year. One should not forget the other factor – at the end of the year, many banks continue to store huge reserves of dollars and therefore undesirable that the dollar would continue to get cheaper. According to the above enlisted reasons, in spite of rise in exchange rate of Yuan with respect to dollar recently and as a result of daily trading, exchange rate of Yuan is fixed above the average price, trading is usually done below the average price. Dynamics of price fluctuations also decreases with each day. If the exchange rate of Yuan increases, which is being observed, exchange activity on banking market, on the contrary, sharply dips.
Although situation in China and essentially the market do not favor further increase in exchange rate of Yuan with respect to Dollar, many traders did not foresee that the exchange rate of Dollar continues to drop in “Forex”. Since the trading in China is usually not too much active, external factor gradually became determining factor for exchange rate of Yuan.
According to the prognosis, exchange rate of Yuan stops at 7.83 mark in this year.
“If only Chinese factor is taken into consideration, then the exchange rate of Yuan in this year shall be approximately 7.84 but if the dollar shall continue to surrender its position in global market, then it is difficult to say” – such a prognosis was made with respect to the dynamics of exchange rate of Yuan.
Specialists opined that by judging the dynamics of exchange rate of Dollar in International market, huge probability is that decrement in quotation of other major currencies takes place for a short period and even stock market crash cannot be ruled out. In these conditions, it is possible that the exchange rate of Yuan crosses the mark 7.84 and shall fix at 7.83 by the year end.
Even though the exchange rate of Yuan with respect to dollar continues to rise, many specialists consider that simultaneously with the increase in nominal exchange rate of Yuan, actual exchange rate on the contrary dips, which is unfavorable. Nominal exchange rate of Yuan is exchange rate with respect to dollar and actual exchange rate – exchange rate with respect to currencies of countries – major trading partners. According to average price, starting from November, Yuan, in all, rose by 390 points i.у approximately by 0.5% with respect to dollar. However, with respect to other major currencies in the market, Yuan dipped by 2.8% in comparison to Euro, by 1.2% with respect to Japanese Yen, by 1.55% in comparison to British Pound. Even though, Yuan, in comparison to Hong Kong dollar, rose and today, it shall close in major limit 1:1. Main reason is special politics of China’s Government. This analysis demonstrates that, from the point of view of actual exchange rate, increment scale of Yuan is not high as it appears to be in comparison with the exchange rate of dollar, on contrary, can even say about drop in the value of Yuan.
Analysts consider that, during last month of the year, dynamics of exchange rate of dollar in International market shall as usual determine the exchange rate of Yuan. Exchange rate of Yuan shall be fixed at earlier mark, only if the exchange rate of dollar sharply drops with respect to other major currencies. |
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